A scenario planning approach for modelling hybrid demand

This work presents a methodological approach for modelling the evolution of the hybrid demand order flow pattern over long time horizons. The hybrid demand is the result of the mutual interaction between the e-commerce and the traditional demand. Thus, its modelling requires a complex analysis at various aggregation levels. More specifically, it is necessary to establish the quantitative modelling and prediction of the e-commerce demand, both at the market (e-sales turnover) and at the operational (order flow) level. Then, it has to be specified how the demand stemming from the traditional sales channels is modified by the e-commerce introduction. The concurrent presence of dynamic processes and several uncertainty sources, such as the neither instantaneous nor linear e-commerce diffusion process, and the necessity to assess the impact of ecommerce induced demand modifications over a long time horizon, suggest to rely upon a demand scenario planning approach. In fact, various scenarios, covering the potential outcomes of e-sales introduction over long time horizons, have to be considered by the decision makers in order to reliably assess the impact on company performances of the e-commerce induced modifications. The analysis of these scenarios allows to establish a suitable strategy according to these new challenges.